Apr 28 2021 0
The market was relatively quiet in the last session. However, this could change as tonight is the end of the FOMC meeting.
- The dollar did not fluctuate much in Tuesday's session, but remains near a multi-week low while waiting for information from the FOMC meeting.
- Confidence about a global economic recovery, despite the dreadful Covid-19 situation in India, weighs heavily on the dollar.
- Germany is accelerating its plan of mass vaccination. Chancellor Angela Merkel's government aims to extend Covid-19 vaccination to all adults by June, eliminating previous priority rules.
- OPEC and its Russian-led allies will meet on Tuesday to discuss production policy amid forecast for energy demand remains positive despite plagues raging in India and Brazil. and Japan.
- The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained a major stimulus on Tuesday and forecasts inflation will not reach its 2% target for many years to come.
Price rebounded sharply as expected around the long-term uptrend line. The pattern of spining top was also clearly confirmed on the daily frame. We might consider adding long positions after yesterday's probe orders, initially targeting around 109-109.5. However, it should be noted that due to the strong rise yesterday, the entry point at the current price is not really beneficial. We can also wait for a slight rally before entering.
Prices did not change much in the past session. There is still a candlestick pattern with a narrow range, showing a struggle between the buying / selling sides. We still maintain the old view: you should not buy at this time because: the market is in a state of overbought and the price has approached the upper boundary of the descending channel, and the increase (potential) amplitude is very small. In case the price breaks down of the short-term uptrend channel, it is easy to decline to the 1.20 zone. This will be an important price area to decide the continuation or invalidation of the previous uptrend.
GBP/USD also fluctuated narrowly in the past session. There are no major changes impacting current tactics yet. We continue to expect prices to soon return to the 1.40 zone. Keep long buy orders and place the SL below the 1.380-85 price range.
After the breakout out of the range 1.25-1.265, the price has accumulated in a tight range. In general, this is a positive signal for the sellers as it reflects the not large buying pressure. If a sell order has been placed before, keep it. Let's move the SL and target it at 1.235. New sell orders should only be considered when the price retests the 1.250 zone with bearish signals.
The 0.78 zone still holds. New buy orders (short term) cannot be added yet. With this new price action, on the H4 frame, we need to note the possibility of a double-peak pattern. On the daily frame, there will be a head and shoulders pattern. Even so, the price is still in the long-term up channel, so those who bought around the lower border of the channel in the previous weeks can still keep their orders.