Dec 04 2020 0
USD has constantly been on a decline for the past few sessions. The Non-farm Payroll data will be released today so expect surprises! Try your best to protect the positions we have.
- The dollar continues to weaken as optimism about vaccine rollouts and discussion around the new US fiscal stimulus drives risky needs.
- The dollar depreciated also despite labor data showing job recovery slowing down, with ADP data released on Wednesday showing gains at the slowest pace since July to November.
- Concerning Brexit, France warned on Wednesday it could veto a UK-EU trade deal if it "did not like" its terms, an intervention that caused pressure on EU negotiator Michel Barnier.
- China's Ministry of Commerce said Thursday that it would keep a temporary anti-dumping duty on alcohol imported from Australia for up to four months, but possibly up to nine months under special circumstances.
- Eurozone business fell sharply last month when governments in the bloc re-applied blockade measures to quell the new wave of infections.
Price has moved to the lower boundary of the range as small as expected. Ranging traders should consider closing orders. The current price zone is no longer conducive to adding sell orders because prices may create bullish adjustments. In the case of a breakout at the bottom, there is no longer a large margin to move when it is close to 103. Momentum is falling relatively strong. We also avoid upside trading, except when the price creates a bear trap around 103 - 103.5 with a noticeable bullish signal on the daily chart.
The price quickly approached the confluence area of 1,215 as expected. Consider closing previous long positions and waiting for a chance to return to the uptrend after completing the pullbacks. The bearish signal appeared on the H4 chart. Short-term reversal traders may consider probing short orders. The initial target is around 1.208 and then around 1.20. Pay attention to place Stop Loss carefully above the top area. Again about the possibility of market speculation about the ECB's intervention to lower the EUR rate when it rises too high and fast.
The price increased sharply on Thursday but the signal to break the 1,345 level is not clear. The rejection and bearish engulfing pattern is visible on the H4 chart now, which might suggest the price will return to the range and retest the lower boundary, around 1.328. In the weekends, it's likely that something will happen to Brexit. Be careful when trading this currency, especially when you keep your positions to next week.
At last a clear breakout has appeared. Those who follow the downtrend can start back with short positions. Initial target will be around the 1.28 support. For those who want a higher RR rate, you can consider entering an order after the price pulls back to the 1.290 - 1.295 zone.
The price continues to go up with not too strong force, combined with the relatively large current resistance range, making it difficult to determine whether it has really broken or not. Therefore, entering long orders at present is quite risky. Orders should only be entered when the price breaks above an explicitly accompanied by a pullback. The target then would be around 0.750 - 0.755.