Jul 28 2021 0
USD volatility has increased. However, when the FOMC meeting is not over yet, the market still has not found a clear direction.
- The US Consumer Confidence Index rose month-on-month, contrasting with expectations for a decline.
- However, durable goods orders data recorded a significant decrease.
- USD had a slight decline before the time the Fed announced the results of the policy meeting in July.
- There are mixed news about fuel demand and the evolution of the pandemic, leaving the oil market with no clear direction.
After a bearish signal with a hanging man pattern, the price fell as expected, approaching the target area of 109.5, if you haven't exited the order, you should consider closing the short position. After the bear trap signal around 109.5 area last week combined with the breaking of the downtrend channel, the current market condition is quite risky, it is necessary to wait for more new price action signals.
Price continues to rally, has broken out of the small box and is heading towards the upper boundary of the larger box. EURUSD is still largely dominated by price action from USD, EUR is still without significant momentum. Our strategy is generally unchanged, waiting to sell when the price breaks down to the big box or when the price retests the 1.195 area with a bearish signal.
The price retested the channel line and continued to go up as expected after completing the triangle flag pattern, unfortunately we missed this bet. Now that the 1.390 resistance area has been approached, the next target will be around the round number 1.40 area, keep an eye on the price action in this area to see if the downtrend will return.
The box has not been broken, not much has changed, the opportunity has not yet come, we continue the old strategy, ambush and buy up around the area of 1.240-45. Also, when the price breaks above the box it is also an opportunity to buy because the price has approached the lower boundary of the falling channel, however it should be noted that the RR in this situation may not be good enough.
The price did not change much in the last session, but the selling pressure is still limited and the buyers are still ready to return around 0.733 area. In general, the upside correction is likely to continue, we should avoid selling at this time.