Jul 12 2021 0
There weren't any surprises at the weekends as we expected. USD is still in its slow downtrend. It is backing up from the neckline of the reversal candlestick pattern. We've got plan for today here.
- Investors became more risk averse because the epidemic worsened again and the economic recovery showed negative signals.
- Japan has declared a state of emergency in Tokyo as new cases increase. Southeast Asia is currently experiencing a record number of infections and deaths while infections in the UK and US are also increasing.
- The People's Bank of China (PBoC) returned to easing monetary policy as the country's economy showed signs of slowing down.
- Crude oil prices rebounded after weekly US inventory data showed national gasoline demand hit an all-time high last week, ahead of the 4th of July.
There was a big move on USDJPY when the bullish structure was broken (price broke the ascending channel line and made a lower low). We also had a correction as expected, the price is re-testing the trend line, you continue to wait for the opportunity to sell around this price area, the trigger signal may be a bearish candlestick pattern or when wedge chart pattern completes.
The price continues to move against the sellers, in the previous session the price broke the descending channel line, and in the last session of the week, the price is creating an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Continue to pay attention to the 1.190 price zone, if the price breaks this zone, the reversal pattern will be activated, then we will temporarily give up the selling strategy, the price may continue to rise to the 1.200 zone.
The price increased strongly in the last session of the week, approaching the previous peak around the 1.390 area. Currently a double bottom is forming, the trigger point for the pattern will be the 1.390 level, if it is broken, the price target will be around 1.400-05. However, the RR level for bottom-fishing orders is not high, you should avoid buying at this time, so continue to wait and observe.
The price has corrected down as expected, the target of 1.245 has also been approached, but there is no sign of bullishness yet (the pullback may not be over yet). Be patient, wait for a bullish signal before buying back in the uptrend.
After approaching the initial target of 0.740, the price did not continue to go down but corrected up, orders that have moved SL could have been stopped-out. Looking at the daily, we can see that the buying pressure is quite strong, so we suspend the sell orders and wait for new signals around the resistance areas.