FOREX TRADING STRATEGY APR 1 - FIRST DAY

Apr 01, 2020
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It's April's  Fool Day. Also, the first day of the month. What you do at the beginning can set the course for the whole upcoming months. So, check out the latest updates on the world and choose your forex trading strategies carefully.

New hotspot

New York State reported an additional 9,300 new cases of coronavirus yesterday, bringing the total to 76,000, surpassing China's Hubei province - formerly the origin and epicenter of the virus. After a two-month battle, the majority of virus infections were limited to Hubei province, where 67,801 cases were reported on March 30. New York has a population equal to one third of the population living in Hubei (20 million people reside in New York State, while the number of people living in Hubei is 60 million). 

However, the number of deaths in New York is not as bad as the number of deaths in Hubei (New York has just over 1,500 deaths, while in Hubei more than 3,100). In China, the government has revealed an additional 1,541 asymptomatic virus infections under pressure from increasing criticism for not disclosing their full numbers.

Chaotic markets

Asian stocks are likely to start a new quarter in a chaotic manner as investors examine data showing indicative signs that the Chinese economy is starting to recover from a worsening situation. in the United States. The S&P 500 closed near the session bottom. The futures market in Japan and Hong Kong declined, while the markets in Australia increased. Today, data on China's manufacturing sector will be released, expected to show a recovery in March. Meanwhile, Treasury Bonds are higher. 

Global stocks are escaping the worst quarter since the end of 2008, down 22%. That has pulled some investors back into stocks, but the volatility index has increased significantly and many expect it to fall further. AUD is coming back after a brutal quarter due to betting on stimulus. Elsewhere, crude oil rose 1.9% and gold rose 0.1%.

Dividend income

Based on financial contracts betting on future dividend payout ratios, it seems that the decline of Hong Kong stocks due to concerns about the global economic downturn may have gone too far. Contracts that allow traders to speculate on the dividends to be paid in the Hang Seng Index imply a cut of about 10% by 2020, compared to more than 20% in the S&P 500 and about 50% in points. standard of euro area (according to calculations using futures contracts due in December). 

While the Hang Seng has dropped 16% since the beginning of the year, expectation on the dividend payout rate has dropped by about 11%, the future price shows as the closing price on Tuesday in Hong Kong. The gap reflects the optimism that many listed companies in the city will be encouraged to distribute their profits to shareholders.

Australian relief

The Australian Government will help hire hundreds of aircraft full of products such as rock lobster, beef and milk to key markets including China and Japan, after the coronavirus pandemic led to the cancellation of most Commercial flights that often carry fresh produce. The government will provide 110 million Australian dollars ($ 68 million) to bring Australian products to key markets, starting with the United Arab Emirates, China, Japan, and Hong Kong. and Singapore. 

Recent international flights by airlines including Qantas and Virgin Australia cannot bring products including chilled seafood, red meat, dairy products and some fruits and vegetables to the market. foreign school.