Mar 18 2021 0
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting yesterday really stirred up the market.
- The FOMC made modest changes during its March policy meeting and kept the interest rate target range constant at 0-0.25%.
- IEA said there will not be a new "super cycle" of oil prices.
- French Prime Minister Jean Castex said France had entered the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, when on average seven days of new cases increased by over 25,000 cases, the first time since late November.
- Germany also reported 13,435 new coronavirus infections, 249 deaths in Wednesday's latest update.
- France, along with several other European countries have suspended the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine on the advice of regional health authorities.
- US-China tensions: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has released a report identifying 24 Chinese and Hong Kong officials as taking actions to reduce Hong Kong's autonomy.
The price once again retested the 109.3 zone and was once again strongly rejected, creating bearish signals on both the daily chart and the H4 chart. The short-term uptrend line has also been broken and has had a successful retest. This price action shows that the selling pressure is still ample, and the bulls are unlikely to push prices out of this zone. Reversal traders may consider entering exploration orders with current signals. However, only adding enough positions when the Double Top pattern is completed, the price breaks down to 108.5. For the trend followers, it is advisable to consider exit because the market is showing quite a disadvantage.
Not chasing the rebound from the 1.20 zone was correct since yesterday, the price bounced up very strongly from the 1.19 zone. With this price action, one should pay attention to the possibility of forming a new short-term bullish structure, which will be confirmed when the price breaks above 1.20. Meanwhile, the uptrend could continue in the short term and the price could retest the broken uptrend line, around 1.21, or even up to 1.215. In general, no action should be taken at this time. Wait for the signal from the 1.20 zone.
The price has turned up as expected, is moving closer to the upper boundary of the range, around 1.4. Range traders that bought in according to recommendations the previous day should consider preparing to exit. Wait for new signals around this price zone. As for the continuation traders trend, the short-term down channel line has been broken. However, we need to wait for more important signals. When the price completes the Double Bottom pattern and breaks above the 1.4 zone, consider buying orders.
What we expected has also arrived. The price successfully broke out of the resistance zone 1.245, which triggered sell orders. Hold the order and move the Stop Loss to reduce your risk. The target for short orders this time is around 1.23.
AUDUSD rebounded sharply yesterday. This price action changed the newly formed short-term bearish structure to a bullish one. It is currently re-testing the 0.785 confluence zone. Signals are conflicting and changing very quickly. We should be more patient and wait for new reactions around the 0.785 zone before acting.