Mar 12 2021 0
The USD is losing its power, so other currencies are affected. It's all analyzed below.
- Wednesday's lower consumer price data in the United States helped ease concerns about a possible spike in inflation as economies reopen after the COVID-19 pandemic. Yields on US bonds are also down from the recent spike.
- Also supporting the improved risk appetite is US President Joe Biden's $ 1.9 trillion COVID-19 bailout bill, which won House House final approval on Wednesday.
- The ECB does not change interest rates but accelerates the PEPP stimulus program.
The price is still unable to break above the support level of 108.35 after repeated retesting. The daily chart candlestick pattern shows that selling pressure is still present. We still expect the price to break the uptrend line and fall below 108. At that time, we might consider adding short positions to existing sell orders. However, we need to note one more possibility. On the H4 chart, the price is forming a bullish flag pattern. If it does, we need to abandon the sell strategy, because this is the model with the highest probability of winning according to Thomas Bulkowski. The uptrend could return.
The price has recovered to the 1.20 zone as expected, but the downside signal has not appeared yet, so we cannot return to the decline. Let's continue looking at zone 1.20-1.21. If you see bearish signals, consider sell orders, especially if they appear on the daily chart.
Early exit of sell orders has helped us to keep some profit. Currently the price has approached the upper boundary of the range, around 1.40. Head and Shoulders reversal pattern also formed and waited for confirmation. We should still focus only on the 1.40 price zone. If a noticeable bearish signal appears, range traders might consider short orders. In case the price successfully breaks down of this zone, which has completed the reversal pattern, the bulls can consider returning to the main trend.
Price has followed scenario 2, breaking the lower boundary of the range. Those who sold out according to previous recommendation keep the order and move Stop Loss to reduce risk. The target for this decline will be around the 1.245 zone.
The price has completed its target after the double bottom pattern is confirmed, approaching the 0.78 zone. This is also a previously broken long-term trendline retest. Please wait for the bearish signals to return to sell orders.