Jul 14 2021 0
Unexpected US inflation data sent the dollar back to multi-month highs. This is threatening the neckline of the reversal candlestick pattern. We must react now!
- The story that the Fed will soon tighten policy is being discussed again when inflation in May has nearly doubled compared to the forecast (0.9% vs. 0.5%).
- However, such tightening expectations have been somewhat restrained in recent days as Covid-19 cases have begun to rise again.
- The Wall Street Journal reported that Fed President James Bullard of St. Louis said in an interview published Tuesday that the Fed should immediately start cutting bond purchases.
- Crude oil prices rose after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the global energy market would be "very tense" if OPEC+ failed to resolve the current dispute over the allocation of market share to members.
USDJPY also followed the lead of USD in the past session, continuing to go up without showing any signs of returning to the previous decline. We continue to patiently wait for the triggering signals for sell orders, avoiding entering orders too soon.
EURUSD was completely led by the USD, falling quite strongly in the past session to the lowest low in many months. This price action invalidated the previously forming reversal pattern and created a range area of relative amplitude, between 1.178-1.190. The selling pressure is increasing, you continue to maintain the selling strategy, replenish your position when the bottom of the range is broken, the target will be around 1.170.
GBPUSD is also strongly rejected from the upper edge of the range and is heading towards a bottom around 1.375. There are still not many significant changes so we will continue to observe this range, waiting for new signals.
The price did not approach the lower boundary of the rising channel (1.240) as expected, but turned up again, the buy orders have not been activated, we continue to wait and see.
The volatility of AUDUSD has increased in the last session but has not been able to break out of the recent price range and has not made a significant change, the signal on AUDUSD is not clear, so avoid trading for now.